The tape goes up at Aintree on Saturday and 34 horses set off over four miles and two and a half furlongs. The Grand National pulls in people who never open a form guide for the rest of the year, and it rewards them with chaos. Around a third of the field will fail to finish. The fences, the trip and the cavalry charge make this the hardest puzzle in jump racing.
Anyone can win the National. A 66/1 shot has landed the prize, a 100/1 outsider has placed, and the past two decades produced winners at 33/1, 25/1 and 40/1. Bookmakers price the race as a spectacle first and a betting puzzle second, which leaves gaps for anyone willing to look past the top of the market.
The course does much of the work. Becher's Brook, the Chair and Valentine's ask questions a horse will not face at Cheltenham or Ascot. A chaser who jumps well at Kempton can come unstuck at the fourth fence, and a stayer who looks slow around Sandown can find the trip suits him.
Merseyside in April brings soft ground more often than not, and the going report matters as much as the form. A horse who has never raced on heavy going is a risk at any price.
The handicapper publishes the weights in February and every runner carries a rating that reflects its best recent form. Top weight sits near 11st 10lb and the rest of the field carries less. Weight exists to stop the best horse from winning, which is the whole point of a handicap. A chaser rated 160 gives away two stone to one rated 145, and over four miles that difference shows in the final half-mile.
The ratings give you a guide. Many winners arrive on a mark that flatters them, having run a quiet race three weeks earlier to protect their handicap. Trainers plan for this race a year in advance, and a horse can be campaigned to peak on one afternoon at Aintree.
The class stayer carries top weight and the best form. He needs to be exceptional to win, and the history of the race shows how few pull it off. A Gold Cup-level chaser giving two stone to the field has to jump clean and stay the trip, and one mistake at Becher's ends the day.
The second-season chaser arrives on a favourable mark. He has shown enough over three miles to suggest the trip suits, he has room to improve, and his trainer has kept him fresh since Christmas. This is where the price often beats the profile.
The veteran has been around Aintree before. He knows the fences, he handles the crowd, and he runs his race. A place is a realistic target at 25/1 with six places paid.
Bookmakers compete hard on this race. Several pay out on five or six places instead of the standard four, and a handful promise a free bet if your horse falls at the first. The headline number never tells the whole story. Spend two minutes reading the bonus small print before you claim anything, because wagering requirements and minimum odds clauses decide whether an offer is worth your time. A £10 free bet on a 4/1 shot with a 40x rollover is a different animal from the same bet with no strings attached.
Ante-post prices reward you for taking a risk months out. Non-runner, no bet terms protect your stake if the horse misses the race, though the odds are shorter and the place terms weaker. Race-day prices give you the full picture: the going, the final field, the jockey bookings and the enhanced each-way terms. For most punters, waiting until the morning of the race makes more sense.
If you do back ante-post, check whether the bookmaker applies non-runner no bet. Without it, a horse who misses Aintree takes your stake with him.
The opening circuit decides more Nationals than the closing one. A field of 34 cannot all get a clear sight of the first fence, and horses shuffled towards the back tend to meet trouble at Becher's. Front-runners who burn energy in the opening mile have little left for the run to the elbow.
Hold-up horses need luck and a jockey willing to thread a path through the pack. Experience counts with riders here. A jockey who has completed the course before knows where the trouble sits and when to move.
Race day runs from early afternoon into the evening, and the gaps between the seven races stretch to 35 minutes. Regulars fill the dead time with a bet on the next contest, a drink, or a few spins on a slot. An NV Casino login takes seconds and puts the games in the same account you use for your racing stakes, so you are not shifting money between three apps while the parade ring fills.
The favourite has a poor record in the National. A short price on a horse carrying top weight over four miles gives you little back, and the market overrates class in a race that punishes it. Value tends to sit with second-season chasers rated in the mid-140s, proven over three and a half miles, and trained by someone who has aimed at this race all season.
Study the horses who have run at Aintree before. The course suits a certain type, and a chaser who finished sixth last year off a higher mark can improve on that effort with less weight on his back.
Set a budget before the first race and treat it as money already spent. Free bets and enhanced place terms tempt you to stretch that budget, and the line between a bit of fun and a problem moves without warning. If you chase losses after the last race, or bet with money set aside for something else, the pattern has shifted. Read up on where a hobby tips into a problem and use the tools the UK Gambling Commission requires every licensed operator to offer.
GamStop lets you self-exclude from every UK-licensed site with one request, and GamCare runs a free helpline if you want to talk through your betting. Both services stay confidential, and neither costs you anything.
The National delivers the same thing every year: a race nobody can call with confidence. Check the weights, compare the each-way terms, and back the horse you fancy at a price you are happy with. The rest comes down to 34 horses and 30 fences.